Hi K RobotU.S. Stock Market Outlook — Next Week
Disclaimer: This page is for learning purposes only. It is not investment advice, guidance, or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Forecasts are uncertain and may be wrong.
Weekly Preview
This week, the S&P 500 initiated the final weekly-degree upward wave, with Friday completing the initial daily impulsive sub-wave (i of the final sequence). A wave-iv–scale hourly pullback is expected on Monday, with the minimum retracement around 60 points, targeting SPX 6790, and an extreme retracement level near 6770. Following this corrective move, the market should transition into the next daily impulsive advance (wave v at the daily degree) to complete the entire daily upswing. The projected termination zone for this leg lies at SPX 6950, with an upper extreme at 6980, aligning with the confluence of Fibonacci extensions and channel resistance. Once this daily impulsive structure completes, the index is expected to enter a daily-degree 150-point corrective wave, marking the start of the next higher-degree retracement phase.
Mon — 2025/12/01
Outlook
Despite the recent rebound, the broader market appears poised for a potential pullback after short-term gains, and as long as the major indices hold above their 20-day moving averages, the near-term uptrend remains intact, with energy and silver sectors showing constructive setups. Last week, expectations for a December rate cut surged, triggering a multi-day rebound from oversold conditions in U.S. equities, but markets are now approaching short-term overbought territory. A period of consolidation or mild retracement this week would be a healthy development, and the primary focus remains on trend behavior. The 20-day moving average is the key gauge for short-term momentum: even if the S&P 500 or Nasdaq-100 experience volatility or modest pullbacks, as long as the daily close holds above the 20-day, the short-term trend stays upward, allowing the indices to continue basing and potentially challenge overhead resistance until a decisive close below the 20-day signals weakness. Investors should also monitor Federal Reserve Chair Powell’s speech scheduled for Monday at 8 p.m. ET. Although U.S. equities have rebounded, prior leadership from growth stocks has been relatively muted, with capital rotating instead into healthcare, energy, precious and industrial metals such as gold, silver, copper, as well as lithium, aluminum, and sectors expected to benefit from rate cuts, including retail, housing, and travel. On Friday, leading names within the energy sector broke above recent highs and posted fresh 52-week highs, reflecting bullish price action. The Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLE) has also outperformed the broader market, remaining above its 20-day moving average even as major indices briefly dipped below theirs, demonstrating notable relative strength. A breakout above its trendline and recent highs would further confirm sectoral strength. Silver has emerged as the strongest performing group, with the SLV ETF breaking out from a cup-and-handle pattern and clearing its trendline, not only resisting market weakness but also leading the broader indices to new highs and displaying exceptional relative strength. While heightened volatility may occur in the coming days, the short-term trend remains constructive as long as SLV holds above its 20-day moving average. Many silver-related equities also recorded new highs on Friday. With AI infrastructure requiring substantial electricity, and silver being essential for power generation, solar technology, and energy storage applications, structural demand for silver continues to accelerate.
Key Signals
- SPX key pivot level: 6820
- SPX key bullish level: 6870
- SPX first support level: 6775
- SPX key defense level: 6725
Day’s Data
- ISM manufacturing
- Fed Chair Jerome Powell speaks
Tue — 2025/12/02
Outlook
After several consecutive days of rebound, U.S. equities saw a mild pullback yesterday, which was fully in line with expectations. Both the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq-100 continue to hold above their 20-day moving averages, indicating that the short-term uptrend remains intact. A number of growth names — including ALAB, NBIS, and BABA — displayed notable single-day relative strength. While this relative strength from growth stocks is a constructive sign, the dominant market theme is still the rate-cut narrative, which continues to attract capital. The best-performing areas remain rate-sensitive sectors such as housing, retail, travel, and biotechnology, while energy and healthcare have also been among the strongest sectors over the past month. In other words, most growth and technology stocks still appear to be in consolidation mode, although a handful of exceptionally strong data-center names continue to push higher. Given that the rate-cut theme is developing favorably and macro conditions lean constructive, the broader market outlook for December and early next year remains skewed toward a bullish bias. The equal-weighted S&P 500 ETF (RSP) has rebounded toward its historical resistance zone, so yesterday’s minor pullback was not surprising. Its moving averages have yet to realign into a fully constructive setup, and a brief period of sideways consolidation would help improve technical alignment and support the formation of right-side bases for individual stocks. A few more days of digestion would represent a healthy and normal price action. The healthcare sector, after a strong rally over the past month, has recently experienced a short-term pullback. Several stocks are approaching the pullback-to-support zones we discuss in our trading framework. GMED, for example, may pull back toward its 20-day moving average and prior breakout levels. Fundamentally, GMED’s growth is not driven by temporary shortages or hype but rather by steady, long-term medical demand. Spinal conditions are closely linked to aging demographics, sedentary lifestyles, and natural degeneration, leading to a gradually rising baseline demand for surgeries and related medical devices — a form of structural, non-cyclical demand that rarely disappears suddenly. Chronic pain treatment is also a growing segment; for instance, spinal cord stimulators help reduce patients’ dependency on long-term pain medication and still have relatively low penetration, leaving ample room for future expansion. On the supply side, multiple major players compete in the market, and although occasional short-term supply-chain noise or acquisition-related disruptions may occur, there is currently no sign of extreme “shortage-driven” dynamics. For retail investors, GMED can be viewed as a company operating in a steadily expanding market, supported by a solid product portfolio and ongoing acquisition-driven expansion, gradually capturing market share and driving revenue and earnings higher over time.
Key Signals
- SPX key pivot level: 6815
- SPX key bullish level: 6850
- SPX first support level: 6780
- SPX key defense level: 6740
Day’s Data
- Auto sales
Wed — 2025/12/03
Outlook
Market conditions remain delicately balanced as large-cap leaders rebound toward their 20-day moving averages and selective stocks begin to form constructive setups, with the key prerequisite being that the broader market must avoid a deeper pullback. Although the major U.S. indices appeared to advance yesterday, the gains were largely driven by heavyweight AAPL while most other stocks failed to participate. Individual stock performance was mixed; several leading names faced heavier-than-expected selling pressure, such as WDC, whereas semiconductor-equipment names showed notable strength, highlighted by ASML breaking to a recent high. A continued sideways consolidation in the indexes would represent a healthy pattern and could allow certain stocks to complete small cup-with-handle bases, including FSLR and LMND, provided the market does not correct sharply enough to undermine these setups. Rate-cut beneficiaries such as LEN also have the potential to finish a cup-with-handle bottom. From a trading perspective, recent positions have built a modest profit cushion, showing some progress, but given the limited number of high-conviction opportunities, the plan remains to play slow and ensure portfolio stress stays manageable should the market pull back. My stance remains neutral—conditions are not weak, but they are far from strong. The Russell 2000 (IWM) and rate-cut themes have staged sharp V-shaped rebounds driven by rising expectations of a December rate cut, yet such V-shaped moves require either sideways action or a mild pullback to transition into more sustainable trends. The next major catalyst is likely the upcoming inflation data, which should provide clearer direction for small caps and rate-sensitive sectors. Continued consolidation would be constructive, especially as homebuilder stocks are developing the right side of their bases and would benefit from another 5–10 days of orderly digestion. Meanwhile, mega-cap tech names such as NVDA, MSFT, and AMZN have all rebounded toward their 20-day moving averages or multi-layer resistance zones, but their rebound momentum lags the broader market. I will be watching their behavior at the 20-day line—reclaims could help drive a broader market rebound, while rejections may invite short-side pressure. The higher-probability scenario appears to be an initial rejection at the 20-day, followed by a period of flattening in that moving average before any meaningful attempt to repair this key short-term trend line. Elsewhere in semiconductors, CRDO reported strong results and guidance but finished the session with a fade from its opening strength, signaling that buying appetite remains tepid and market quality is still middling. Many strong stocks have also been trading within rising channels, and traders should be cautious when breakout points occur near the upper boundary of these channels, as price often pulls back from such resistance.
Key Signals
- SPX key pivot level: 6835
- SPX key bullish level: 6860
- SPX first support level: 6805
- SPX key defense level: 6770
Day’s Data
- ADP employment
- Import price index
- ISM services
Thu — 2025/12/04
Outlook
The broader market is entering a constructive setup as commodity-linked equities rally in unison and rate-cut beneficiaries within traditional industries emerge as near-term leadership. Although the major indices posted only modest gains yesterday, a wide array of stocks staged meaningful rebounds, and with U.S. equities holding last week’s sharp rally without any notable giveback, price action continues to track the most constructive scenario. Deeply oversold growth names and Bitcoin have bounced, while cyclicals remain firmly in the lead, accompanied by an increasing number of energy stocks breaking out from basing structures and printing fresh 52-week highs. Should a December risk-on phase materialize, leadership is likely to come from commodities, rate-cut thematic plays, industrial cyclicals, and a select group of semiconductors and data-center beneficiaries, rather than from AI-linked names, which still require further consolidation. Equal-weight S&P 500 (RSP), the S&P 400 MidCap Index, and the Russell 2000 are all approaching potential cup-with-handle breakouts, with only one to two more sessions of sideways action needed to complete valid handles; a synchronized breakout above their multi-month supply zones would signal the start of a new intermediate-term uptrend in U.S. equities, likely accompanied by increasingly aggressive buying. Recent synchronized strength across natural gas, rare-earth miners, copper producers, and silver miners reflects a tri-polar macro narrative centered on tight supply conditions, structural demand expansion, and rising market conviction that policy rates have peaked and monetary conditions will continue to ease. In natural gas, colder-than-expected winter forecasts in Europe and the U.S. have lifted heating and power demand, accelerating inventory draws and driving futures sharply higher. Meanwhile, soaring power consumption from AI data centers has increased thermal-generation load factors, enabling natural gas to be reframed as an “energy backbone for AI infrastructure,” prompting valuation repair across upstream producers, midstream pipeline operators, and utilities with gas-exposed portfolios. The rare-earths theme is anchored in the convergence of strategic-resource scarcity, de-risking from China, and expanding demand from renewable energy and defense. Elements such as neodymium and gallium remain indispensable to EV motors, wind-turbine drivetrains, high-performance magnets, and advanced weapons systems; with global refining capacity and major ore bodies heavily concentrated in China, geopolitical risk premia continue to rise. Under ongoing export controls, technological decoupling, and supply-chain realignment, non-China producers in the U.S., Australia, and Canada are increasingly treated as policy-aligned national champions—where any new ore discovery, capacity-expansion plan, long-term offtake contract, or subsidy announcement can catalyze rapid re-rating far beyond short-term fundamentals. The copper-miner narrative is reinforced by the long-term electrification cycle and AI-driven infrastructure demand amid intensifying concerns about structural undersupply. Record-high copper prices stem from chronic supply constraints: major producing nations such as Chile, Peru, and Indonesia face declining ore grades, labor strikes, environmental restrictions, and climate-related disruptions, while new project pipelines are scarce and development lead times remain extremely long. On the demand side, EV penetration, charging networks, renewable-energy installations, high-voltage grid upgrades, and the power-and-thermal infrastructure build-out required for AI data centers are set to drive copper consumption at a pace that materially outstrips supply growth. Sell-side models now project a persistent structural deficit over the coming years, reinforcing the “long-term copper shortage” narrative that continues to fuel capital rotation into the space.
Key Signals
- SPX key pivot level: 6835
- SPX key bullish level: 6855
- SPX first support level: 6790
- SPX key defense level: 6770
Day’s Data
- Initial jobless claims
- U.S. trade deficit
Fri — 2025/12/05
Outlook
The broader market landscape shows that growth stocks are finally exhibiting signs of renewed momentum, with many names such as RGTI and CRWV reclaiming their 20-day moving averages and signaling a short-term trend reversal as selling pressure temporarily subsides, though these stocks still require further base-building and consolidation. Market participation remains solid as U.S. equities continue to rotate leadership across different sectors. With the S&P 500 approaching a key resistance zone and the recent rebound forming a wedge-up pattern, the probability of a sharp 1–2 day shakeout cannot be ruled out; therefore, I am keeping initial position sizes conservative to avoid undue portfolio stress during potential pullbacks, which could otherwise force premature trimming. Any short-lived retracement would provide an ideal opportunity to narrow the focus using relative strength as the primary stock selection filter. Financials, biotechnology, and gold miners remain my key areas of interest. Financial stocks are outperforming and printing new highs ahead of the broader market—an encouraging macro signal that reflects constructive expectations for future economic conditions. The KBWB large-cap bank ETF has broken out from a two-month base with improving price structure, and several of its major constituents have already registered fresh highs, supporting a bullish near- to intermediate-term outlook. Biotech momentum also remains intact, with XBI continuing to make new highs and maintaining its short-term uptrend as long as price holds above the 20-day moving average. Meanwhile, ARKG has formed a cup-with-handle base and just staged a breakout, supported by key holdings including TEM, CRSP, GH, and BEAM. In the precious metals space, GDX has rallied back toward historical resistance levels while carving a series of higher lows and displaying contracting volatility, suggesting the potential completion of a cup-with-handle or VCP-style base. Both gold and silver remain on my watchlist, with silver effectively functioning as a leveraged version of gold—offering larger price swings but also higher trading difficulty.
Key Signals
- SPX key pivot level: 6845
- SPX key bullish level: 6890
- SPX first support level: 6840
- SPX key defense level: 6825
Day’s Data
- Personal income
- Personal spending
- PCE
- Consumer sentiment